Regionalisation of population growth projections in coastal exposure analysis     

Jan-Ludolf Merkens  Daniel Lincke  Jochen Hinkel  Sally Brown  Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis 《Climatic change》2018,151(3-4):413-426

Large-area coastal exposure and impact analysis has focussed on using sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios and has placed little emphasis on socioeconomic scenarios, while neglecting spatial variations of population dynamics. We use the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) Framework to assess the population exposed to 1 in 100-year coastal flood events under different population scenarios, that are consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); and different SLR scenarios, derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCPs); and analyse the effect of accounting for regionalised population dynamics on population exposure until 2100. In a reference approach, we use homogeneous population growth on national level. In the regionalisation approaches, we test existing spatially explicit projections that also account for urbanisation, coastal migration and urban sprawl. Our results show that projected global exposure in 2100 ranges from 100 million to 260 million, depending on the combination of SLR and population scenarios and method used for regionalising the population projections. The assessed exposure based on the regionalised approaches is higher than that derived from the reference approach by up to 60 million people (39%). Accounting for urbanisation and coastal migration leads to an increase in exposure, whereas considering urban sprawl leads to lower exposure. Differences between the reference and the regionalised approaches increase with higher SLR. The regionalised approaches show highest exposure under SSP5 over most of the twenty-first century, although total population in SSP5 is the second lowest overall. All methods project the largest absolute growth in exposure for Asia and relative growth for Africa.  相似文献   

Vertical geochemical variations and arsenic mobilization in the shallow alluvial aquifers of the Chapai-Nawabganj District, northwestern Bangladesh: implication of siderite precipitation     

A. H. M. Selim Reza  Jiin-Shuh Jean  Jochen Bundschuh  Chia-Chuan Liu  Huai-Jen Yang  Chi-Yu Lee 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,68(5):1255-1270

Core sediments from three disturbed boreholes (JOR, GHAT, and RAJ) and two undisturbed boreholes (DW1 and DW2) were collected in the study area of the Chapai-Nawabganj district of northwestern Bangladesh for geochemical analyses. In the study area, groundwater samples from fourteen As-contained private wells and five nested piezometers at both the DW1 and DW2 boreholes were also collected and analyzed. The groundwater arsenic concentrations in the uppermost aquifer (10–40 m of depth) range from 3 to 315 μg/L (mean 47.73 ± 73.41 μg/L), while the arsenic content in sediments range from 2 to 14 mg/kg (mean 4.36 ± 3.34 mg/kg). An environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) with an energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer was used to investigate the presence of major and trace elements in the sediments. Groundwaters in the study area are generally the Ca–HCO₃ type with high concentrations of As, but low levels of Fe, Mn, NO₃ ^? and SO ₄ ^?2 . The concentrations of As, Fe, Mn decrease with depth in the groundwater, showing vertical geochemical variations in the study area. Statistical analysis clearly shows that As is closely associated with Fe and Mn in the sediments of the JOR core (r = 0.87, p < 0.05 for Fe and r = 0.78, p < 0.05 for Mn) and GHAT core (r = 0.95, p < 0.05 for Fe and r = 0.93, p < 0.05 for Mn), while As is not correlated with Fe and Mn in groundwater. The comparatively low Fe and Mn concentrations in some groundwater and the ESEM image revealed that siderite precipitated as a secondary mineral on the surface of the sediment particles. The correlations along with results of sequential extraction experiments indicated that reductive dissolution of FeOOH and MnOOH represents a mechanism for releasing arsenic into the groundwater.  相似文献   

A GIS-based DRASTIC model for assessing groundwater vulnerability in the Ordos Plateau, China   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

Lihe Yin  Eryong Zhang  Xiaoyong Wang  Jochen Wenninger  Jiaqiu Dong  Li Guo  Jinting Huang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,69(1):171-185

Groundwater plays a key role in arid regions as the majority of water is supplied by it. Groundwater pollution is a major issue, because it is susceptible to contamination from land use and other anthropogenic impacts. A study was carried out to build a vulnerability map for the Ordos Plateau using the DRASTIC model in a GIS environment. The map was designed to show the areas of the highest potential for groundwater pollution based on hydrogeological conditions. Seven environmental parameters, such as depth to water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone media, and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer, were incorporated into the DRASTIC model and GIS was used to create a groundwater vulnerability map by overlaying the available data. The results of this study show that 24.8 % of the study area has high pollution potential, 24.2 % has moderate pollution potential, 19.7 % has low pollution potential, and the remaining 31.3 % of the area has no risk of groundwater pollution. The regional distribution of nitrate is well correlated with the DRASTIC vulnerability index. In contrast to this, although the DRASTIC model indicated that the western part had no risk, nitrate concentrations were higher in some of these areas. In particular, higher nitrate concentrations were recorded along river valleys and around lakes, such as the Mulin River valley. This is mainly caused by the intensive agricultural development and favorable conditions for recharge along river valleys.  相似文献   

Chemical evolution in the high arsenic groundwater of the Huhhot basin (Inner Mongolia,PR China) and its difference from the western Bengal basin (India)     

Abhijit Mukherjee  Prosun Bhattacharya  Fei Shi  Alan E. Fryar  Arun B. Mukherjee  Zheng M. Xie  Gunnar Jacks  Jochen Bundschuh 《Applied Geochemistry》2009

Elevated As concentrations in groundwater of the Huhhot basin (HB), Inner Mongolia, China, and the western Bengal basin (WBB), India, have been known for decades. However, few studies have been performed to comprehend the processes controlling overall groundwater chemistry in the HB. In this study, the controls on solute chemistry in the HB have been interpreted and compared with the well-studied WBB, which has a very different climate, physiography, lithology, and aquifer characteristics than the HB. In general, there are marked differences in solute chemistry between HB and WBB groundwaters. Stable isotopic signatures indicate meteoric recharge in the HB in a colder climate, distant from the source of moisture, in comparison to the warm, humid WBB. The major-ion composition of the moderately reducing HB groundwater is dominated by a mixed-ion (Ca–Na–HCO₃–Cl) hydrochemical facies with an evolutionary trend along the regional hydraulic gradient. Molar ratios and thermodynamic calculations show that HB groundwater has not been affected by cation exchange, but is dominated by weathering of feldspars (allitization) and equilibrium with gibbsite and anorthite. Mineral weathering and mobilization of As could occur as recharging water flows through fractured, argillaceous, metamorphic or volcanic rocks in the adjoining mountain-front areas, and deposits solutes near the center of the basin. In contrast, WBB groundwater is Ca–HCO₃-dominated, indicative of calcite weathering, with some cation exchange and silicate weathering (monosiallitization).  相似文献   

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans in sediments from Hong Kong   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Müller JF  Gaus C  Prange JA  Päpke O  Poon KF  Lam MH  Lam PK 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,45(1-12):372-378

Concentrations of 2,3,7,8-substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were determined in 14 sediment samples collected from four sites in the Mai Po Marshes Nature Reserve (within a RAMSAR Site) and from another six sites in Victoria Harbour and along the Hong Kong coastline. Elevated levels of PCDDs, and particularly OCDD, were detectable in all samples collected from the Mai Po Marshes and five of the six sites. In contrast to PCDDs, PCDFs were mainly found in sediment samples collected from industrial areas (Kwun Tong and To Kwa Wan) in Victoria Harbour. PCDD/F levels and congener profiles in the samples from the Mai Po Marshes Nature Reserve in particular show strong similarities to those reported in studies which have attributed similar elevated PCDD concentrations to nonanthropogenic PCDD sources.  相似文献   

The hydro-malaprop and the ground water table     

Woessner WW  Anderson MP 《Ground water》2002,40(5):465-465

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Relative timing of deformation and two-stage gold mineralization at the Hutti Mine, Dharwar Craton, India     

Jochen Kolb  Amanda Rogers  F. Michael Meyer 《Mineralium Deposita》2005,40(2):156-174

Gold mineralization at Hutti is confined to a series of nine parallel, N–S to NNW–SSE trending, steeply dipping shear zones. The host rocks are amphibolites and meta-rhyolites metamorphosed at peak conditions of 660±40°C and 4±1 kbar. They are weakly foliated (S₁) and contain barren quartz extension veins. The auriferous shear zones (reefs) are typically characterized by four alteration assemblages and laminated quartz veins, which, in places, occupy the entire reef width of 2–10 m, and contain the bulk of gold mineralization. A <1.5 m wide distal chlorite-sericite (+biotite, calcite, plagioclase) alteration zone can be distinguished from a 3–5 m wide proximal biotite-plagioclase (+quartz, muscovite, calcite) alteration zone. Gold is both spatially and temporally associated with disseminated arsenopyrite and pyrite mineralization. An inner chlorite-K-feldspar (+quartz, calcite, scheelite, tourmaline, sphene, epidote, sericite) alteration halo, which rims the laminated quartz veins, is characterized by a pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, sphalerite, ilmenite, rutile, and gold paragenesis. The distal chlorite-sericite and proximal biotite-plagioclase alteration assemblages are developed in microlithons of the S₂–S₃ crenulation cleavage and are replaced along S₃ by the inner chlorite-K-feldspar alteration, indicating a two-stage evolution for gold mineralization. Ductile D₂ shearing, alteration, and gold mineralization formed the reefs during retrograde evolution and fluid infiltration under upper greenschist to lower amphibolite facies conditions (560±60°C, 2±1 kbar). The reefs were reactivated in the D₃ dextral strike-slip to oblique-slip environment by fault-valve behavior at lower greenschist facies conditions (ca. 300–350°C), which formed the auriferous laminated quartz veins. Later D₄ crosscutting veins and D₅ faults overprint the gold mineralization. The alteration mineralogy and the structural control of the deposit clearly points to an orogenic style of gold mineralization, which took place either during isobaric cooling or at different levels of the Archean crust. From overlaps in the tectono-metamorphic history, it is concluded that gold mineralization occurred during two tectonic events, affecting the eastern Dharwar craton in south India between ca. 2550 – 2530 Ma: (1) The assemblage of various terranes of the eastern block, and (2) a tectono-magmatic event, which caused late- to posttectonic plutonism and a thermal perturbation. It differs, however, from the pre-peak metamorphic gold mineralization at Kolar and the single-stage mineralization at Ramagiri. Notably, greenschist facies gold mineralization occurred at Hutti 35–90 million years later than in the western Dharwar craton. Editorial handling: G. Beaudoin  相似文献   

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98     

Jochen Schwarz  Mathias Raschke  Holger Maiwald 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):259-282

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.  相似文献   

Source mechanism of the 1992 Roermond earthquake from surface-wave inversion of regional data     

Jochen Braunmiller  Torsten Dahm  Klaus-Peter Bonjer 《Geophysical Journal International》1994,116(3):663-672

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A reconstruction of Archean biological diversity based on molecular fossils from the 2.78 to 2.45 billion-year-old Mount Bruce Supergroup, Hamersley Basin, Western Australia     

Jochen J Brocks  Roger Buick  Graham A Logan 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2003,67(22):4321-4335

Bitumens extracted from 2.7 to 2.5 billion-year-old (Ga) shales of the Fortescue and Hamersley Groups in the Pilbara Craton, Western Australia, contain traces of molecular fossils. Based on a combination of molecular characteristics typical of many Precambrian bitumens, their consistently and unusually high thermal maturities, and their widespread distribution throughout the Hamersley Basin, the bitumens can be characterized as ‘probably of Archean age’. Accepting this interpretation, the biomarkers open a new window on Archean biodiversity. The presence of hopanes in the Archean rocks confirms the antiquity of the domain Bacteria, and high relative concentrations of 2α-methylhopanes indicate that cyanobacteria were important primary producers. Oxygenic photosynthesis therefore evolved > 2.7 Ga ago, and well before independent evidence suggests significant levels of oxygen accumulated in the atmosphere. Moreover, the abundance of cyanobacterial biomarkers in shales interbedded with oxide-facies banded iron formations (BIF) indicates that although some Archean BIF might have been formed by abiotic photochemical processes or anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria, those in the Hamersley Group formed as a direct consequence of biological oxygen production. Biomarkers of the 3β-methylhopane series suggest that microaerophilic heterotrophic bacteria, probably methanotrophs or methylotrophs, were active in late Archean environments. The presence of steranes in a wide range of structures with relative abundances like those from late Paleoproterozoic to Phanerozoic sediments is convincing evidence for the existence of eukaryotes in the late Archean, 900 Ma before visible fossil evidence indicates that the lineage arose. Sterol biosynthesis in extant eukaryotes requires molecular oxygen. The presence of steranes together with biomarkers of oxygenic photosynthetic cyanobacteria suggests that the concentration of dissolved oxygen in some regions of the upper water column was equivalent to at least ∼1% of the present atmospheric level (PAL) and may have been sufficient to support aerobic respiration.  相似文献